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DESCRIPTION:Speakers:\n\nBrian Leahy and Vicente Vivanco\n\nAffiliation:\n\
nCoCoSci Group\n\nAbstract:\n\nWhen we’re in a new situation and there’s a
couple of open possibilities about what’s going to happen\, how do we figur
e out what the probabilities are? One method is to build a model of the sit
uation and run the model forward to see what happens. If the model captures
the actual causal variables well enough and we run the model enough times\
, we can get a pretty good sense of the probability of each possible outcom
e. The hypothesis that we use a mental physics engine to calculate the prob
ability of each possible outcome of a novel event has been fruitful. How do
es the ability to run simulations and use the results to calculate probabil
ities develop? Is all of the computational machinery innate\, or does some
of it have to be learned?\n\nWe will report two lines of studies that teste
d 4-year-olds’ ability to figure out what the probabilities are in a novel
situation. We find surprising limitations: while all children are able to i
dentify one possible outcome\, about half of our participants seem unable t
o identify more than one of the possible outcomes. Their evaluations of the
probabilities are\, consequently\, much poorer than adults’. We built comp
utational models to figure out how many times each child was most likely ru
nning their model of the situation. We then validated the model results wit
h a separate\, held-out measure of children’s possibility concepts. We foun
d that children who can figure out what the probabilities are perform well
on a measure of possibility concepts\, while children who only identify a s
ingle possibility on the probability measure show no evidence of possibilit
y concepts. One interpretation of this pattern is that possibility concepts
are necessary for calculating probabilities via simulation\, and that thos
e concepts may develop over the preschool years.\n\nZoom:\n\nhttps://mit.zo
om.us/j/2711902511
DTEND:20241001T170000Z
DTSTAMP:20241008T101008Z
DTSTART:20241001T160000Z
GEO:42.362302;-71.091766
LOCATION:Building 46\, 3310
SEQUENCE:0
SUMMARY:CogLunch: Brian Leahy and Vicente Vivanco\, "Kids who are bad at ev
aluating probabilities struggle to see incompatible possibilities"
UID:tag:localist.com\,2008:EventInstance_47624401220771
URL:https://calendar.mit.edu/event/coglunch-brian-leahy-vicente-vivanco
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