Anticipating and acting on ocean and marine ecosystem change

Climate change projections have argued cogently that the ocean at this century’s end will be far different than the ocean that began it. Many projected ocean changes, including warming ocean temperatures, sea ice declines, more corrosive waters, and fisheries on the move, have shifted from looming threats to contemporary challenges. Climate-informed decisions are needed for resilient marine ecosystems and coastal communities. Recent studies provide compelling evidence that current ocean and climate models can anticipate numerous facets of ocean and marine ecosystem change across decision-relevant time horizons from days to decades. Use of ocean models and predictions to directly inform marine ecosystem decisions, however, remains limited. To address this, ocean prediction systems need to be developed within a sustained end-to-end workflow that allows for efficient dissemination of predictions, continuous evaluation against robust coastal observing capabilities, and continuous feedback from stakeholders to ensure models are fit-to-task. Coastal ecosystems have an outsized importance to marine resources, but the pervasive push for finer model grids to better resolve these systems must be tempered by the necessity for predictions that span the range of ocean futures, and models that are comprehensive enough to capture the diverse drivers and mechanisms underlying marine ecosystem change. These manifold requirements will demand effective integration of global and regional modeling approaches, and coastal observing systems that balance innovation with sustained monitoring needs. NOAA has proposed the Climate Ecosystems and Fisheries Initiative (CEFI) to help meet these challenges and provide the national-scale modeling and decision support system needed to effectively anticipate and act on marine ecosystem change.
 

About this series: The PAOC Colloquium is a weekly interdisciplinary seminar series that brings together the whole PAOC community. Seminar topics include all research concerning the physics, chemistry, and biology of the atmospheres, oceans and climate, but also talks about e.g. societal impacts of climatic processes. The seminars take place on Monday from 12-1pm. Contact paoc-colloquium-comm@mit.edu for more information and Zoom password.