"The Missing Links in Projecting Impacts from Extreme Events"

 In the face of ongoing climate change, there is a growing need to understand the impacts of extreme events and their projected changes to shape appropriate mitigation and adaptation strategies. Unfortunately there is often a large gap between projecting the physical hazard of extreme events and quantitatively projecting their impacts. In this presentation, I will describe two projects exploring capability and limitations of projecting impacts of extreme events. The first project seeks to develop open-source methods for estimating economic risks from tropical cyclones in lower income nations. I will discuss our tropical cyclone risk model for the Philippines, developed in collaboration with World Bank economists, with a particular focus on challenges in quantifying vulnerability. The second project examines ongoing debates in the health literature that limit confident projection of health impacts from extreme heat. I will outline competing views of physiologists versus epidemiologists regarding the role of humidity in heat-health outcomes, and discuss why resolving this debate is critical for robust projection of climate change impacts. Overall, I hope to demonstrate the importance of robust interdisciplinary collaboration, especially between climate scientists and health/social scientists, in projecting impacts from extreme events with climate change.

About this series: The Atmosphere, Ocean and Climate Sack Lunch Seminar Series is an informal seminar series within PAOC that focuses on more specialized topics than the PAOC Colloquium. Seminar topics include all research concerning the science of atmosphere, ocean and climate. The seminars usually take place on Wednesdays from 12-1pm. The presentations are either given by an invited speaker or by a member of PAOC and can focus on new research or discussion of a paper of particular interest. Contact: sacklunch-committee@mit.edu