Prof. Alexandra Chinchilla from Texas A&M University will speak at the MIT Security Studies Program's Wednesday Seminar.

Summary/Abstract:
Before Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, Western allies provided substantial military training and advising to Ukraine. Examining Western security assistance to Ukraine helps explain the causes of Russia’s invasion as well as provides more general implications for the effectiveness of security assistance for deterrence and defense. I argue that Ukraine’s increasingly capable security sector— strengthened by Western assistance – presented a closing window of opportunity for Russia to dominate Ukrainian politics. Russia invaded in part because it believed that Ukraine would only become stronger in the future, but failed because it underestimated the extent to which Ukraine's military modernization and security sector reforms had already succeeded. The implication is that security assistance does not necessarily decrease the risk of war, even when carefully calibrated to avoid rapid, material shifts in the balance of power. Efforts to reassure a rival and extend the window as long as possible can be useful if they prevent the rival from noticing the window’s closing until too late.